When Will The Omicron Surge Be Over? Very Soon. - Northeastern University College of Science

The omicron-fueled surge in COVID-19 cases is likely to peak by mid-January, according to new projections, after which the numbers are expected to plummet just as quickly as they soared.

Projections from the Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological + Socio-technical Systems in the Network Science Institute at Northeastern suggest that the omicron variant, which has gripped the nation in the last few weeks, may stop shattering records soon.

“Omicron was fast and furious in its growth and will be fast—hopefully not furious—but very fast also in its decline,” says Alessandro Vespignani, director of the Network Science Institute and Sternberg Family Distinguished Professor at Northeastern. “It should be receding sooner than other waves that we experienced in the past.”

Alessandro Vespignani, director of the Network Science Institute and Sternberg Family Distinguished University professor of physics, computer sciences, and health science at Northeastern University. Photo by Matthew Modoono/Northeastern University

Vespignani’s team of infectious-disease modelers has been developing a set of projections about the possible futures of the COVID-19 pandemic since the crisis began. The research group is part of a network of expert disease-modeling teams across the country that collaborate with the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

“If you look at the United States, the bulk of the infections should be mid-January, and we should start seeing a decline in the second half of January,” Vespignani says. “So it’s, in a sense, very soon.”