The polls refer consistently to the 2024 presidential election as a dead heat. Real Clear Politics’ aggregation of national polls gives Kamala Harris a scant 0.2% lead over Donald Trump. Fivethirtyeight has Trump winning 51 times per 100 simulations. The Economist simulations favor Trump 53% of the time.

All of these analyses are operating within a statistical margin of error.

“This election is a coin flip,” says Matan Harel, a Northeastern University assistant professor of mathematics.

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