How the annihilation of Ukraine’s agricultural production affects the world, according to a new network model

The Russia-Ukraine war causes not only stark losses in the supply of staple grains and dietary oils to parts of the world, but also a significant reduction in the production of other foods dependent on them such as poultry and pork, a new study shows.

Ukraine, which is often called “the world’s bread basket,” is one of the world’s largest producers of barley, maize, wheat and sunflower seed oil. The conflict has affected both agricultural production and exports of these staple crops, leading to supply shortages across borders and sharp food price increases globally.

International organizations like the United Nations, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund have been alerting the international community of the imminent global food crisis threat and repeating calls for supporting the most vulnerable countries.

Now, a new tool, developed by an international group of scientists and members of the Complexity Science Hub in Vienna, Austria, including Moritz Laber, a doctoral student in Northeastern’s Network Science Institute, can predict exactly how localized food production shocks like the war in Ukraine might affect individual countries in the world.

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Photo by Matthew Modoono/Northeastern University