How Northeastern researchers are helping predict the outbreak of bird flu on US dairy farms - Northeastern University College of Science

Less than a year ago, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention funded a disease prediction center at Northeastern University called EPISTORM: The Center for Advanced Epidemic Analytics and Predictive Modeling Technology.

Considered a “National Weather Service for epidemic threats,” the center was designed to help detect and prepare the United States for the next outbreak of infectious disease, especially in rural areas.

Now, EPISTORM researchers find themselves on the front lines of the bird flu outbreak.

Also known as H5N1, bird flu has been detected in 169 livestock herds on dairy farms in 13 states since March 25, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

The spread to cows is of particular concern to scientists, who say any extension to mammal species creates more opportunities for the respiratory virus to evolve into a strain more dangerous to people.

To help mitigate the outbreak, EPISTORM researchers have produced risk maps highlighting potential hot spots on farms based on the cows’ travel across state lines, says Alessandro Vespignani, director of Northeastern’s Network Science Institute, Sternberg Family Distinguished Professor and head of EPISTORM.