close up of a hand making notes on a series of graphs

Covid-19 isn’t a ghost just yet. But it may be getting there.

The specter of the coronavirus loomed large at this time last year. Cases were beginning to rise heading into the winter, and a massive surge was still ahead. With no vaccines yet available to provide immunity to the virus, Halloween was a subdued affair, making COVID-19 the only ghoul in town.

But this year, Halloween is largely back, and the pandemic’s presence is becoming less spooky.

COVID-19 cases have been declining over the past month in the U.S. Since peaking on September 1, cases have plunged around 57 percent. And over the next six months, the outlook continues to be encouraging, according to projections by the Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological + Socio-technical Systems in the Network Science Institute at Northeastern.

But a COVID-19 retreat won’t be linear, says Alessandro Vesipgnani, director of the Network Science Institute and Sternberg Family Distinguished Professor at Northeastern. And the trajectory of the pandemic will depend on how the next six months play out, he says.

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Network Science Program