There’s a heated battle going on about the Summer Olympics in Rio de Janeiro. Nearly 200 scientists signed a letter to the World Health Organization last week, calling for the games to be moved because of the ongoing epidemic of Zika in Brazil.
But many health officials — including those at WHO — say having the games in Rio doesn’t pose a big enough threat to warrant moving them.
So who’s right?
To figure out whether Zika might be a big problem at the Olympics, there’s one key piece of information you need: How many mosquitoes will be in Rio during the games?
That’s exactly what epidemiologist Mikkel Quam has been working on. He used a mathematical model — and data from another outbreak in Rio — to estimate the chance spectators and athletes will get a mosquito bite for three weeks in August, when the games take place.
“I was legitimately surprised,” says Quam, who works at Umea University in Sweden. “There’s very little mosquito activity during the Olympics.”
