Diseases spread differently, region by region. This Mathematical model shows how.

Considering how many factors contribute to the worldwide spread of airborne infectious diseases, forecasting pandemics can be a daunting task.

In an attempt to reflect that complex reality, Northeastern’s Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Sociotechnical Systems (MOBS Lab) has developed a new, data-driven model that factors in patterns of interpersonal behavior down to the state or province level, enabling epidemiologists to get a closer, more specific look at how diseases spread.

“There’s no one model that fits all nations,” says Ana Pastore y Piontti, an associate research scientist in the MOBS Lab and co-author of a paper outlining this new model, which was published in the journal Nature. “We can break down contact patterns into subnational levels where the people are interacting.”

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